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U.S. President Trump will go to China next month to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit to be held in Shenzhen from November 18th to 19th. Russian President Vladimir Putin had earlier proposed to hold a tripartite meeting between the heads of state of China, the United States and Russia during the summit. The outside world is paying attention to the chances of success of this meeting and the issues it may involve.
On October 19, Trump responded. He expressed his willingness to participate in the meeting, but emphasized that the focus would be denuclearization, not ending the Russia-Ukraine war. This is inconsistent with Putin's initial intention to discuss the Ukraine issue.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning currently only said that "there is no information to provide" and did not make a clear position. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha posted a criticism on the social platform
The three heads of state have never held formal trilateral talks before, and this planned meeting will not involve Ukrainian President Zelensky. If finalized, it will become a major event in the history of international diplomacy.
"Yalta Conference 2.0"?
The idea of "tripartite talks" was proposed by Putin. The Wall Street Journal quoted a former Russian intelligence official as saying that during a phone call with Trump on October 9, Putin proposed a meeting with the heads of state of the United States and China on Ukraine.
The call also led to an agreement between the two parties that the United States would import diesel from Russia to lower oil prices.
The report pointed out that Putin is trying to use his increasingly close relationship with Trump to solve the Russia-Ukraine issue. A former Russian intelligence official told the newspaper that Putin hopes that the three-party talks will become the "Second Yalta Conference" to delineate global spheres of influence.
The Yalta Conference was a summit held by leaders of the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union in Yalta, Crimea, at the end of World War II. At that time, the leaders of the three major powers formulated the new world order and distribution of interests after World War II, forming the so-called "Yalta System", which profoundly affected the subsequent world structure.
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Trump’s considerations and Ukraine pressure
The relationship between Trump and Zelensky has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks. "(Zelensky) should have resolved this war a long time ago. If he had listened to me, he would have had a much better deal," Trump told reporters.
Faced with the approaching mid-term elections and high oil prices, Trump shifted the responsibility to Zelensky for his attack on Russian oil refineries, accusing the other party of "not wanting to end this war."
However, energy experts generally believe that the war in Iran is the main reason for the rise in diesel prices, and the amount of fuel Russia has promised to sell cannot affect market supply.
Robert English, a former U.S. Department of Defense policy analyst and director of the Center for Central European Studies at the University of Southern California, analyzed to the BBC: "Relations between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders have fallen to an unprecedented low."
He pointed out that Trump was worried about losing the midterm elections in Congress, "so he renewed the pressure in the hope of brokering some kind of peace agreement with Ukraine." English believes that Trump turned to support Putin because "he believed it was the fastest way to end the war."
But English said that this kind of pressure may not necessarily be effective: "When Trump criticizes Zelensky in this way, Ukrainians will unite more around him." He added that European allies will also provide more assistance to Ukraine within their capabilities.
"(The collapse of Ukraine) may be what Trump and Putin expected, but it is not the reality," English said.
Why doesn’t Beijing respond?
At present, China has not publicly expressed its position on the three-party talks. The Wall Street Journal quoted analysts as saying that holding such a summit in China would be an important step for Xi Jinping to enhance China’s diplomatic mediation status. Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, said China wants to be seen as a hub between major powers and could become a mediator between the United States and Russia.
However, even if the talks are facilitated, the discussions among the three parties may not focus on the issue of nuclear weapons. Last week (16th), Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that China’s nuclear power is not at the same level as that of the United States and Russia. It is “unfair, unreasonable, and unfeasible” to require China to participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage.
The report also quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that some Chinese officials were worried that the geopolitical issues involved in the talks would cover up China’s plan to use APEC to demonstrate its regional role.
At the same time, Beijing is trying to strike a balance between supporting Putin and maintaining economic ties between China and Europe. The three-way meeting may directly involve China in the Ukrainian conflict, triggering strong opposition from European countries.
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