At eighty years old, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is running for re-election as President of Brazil next Sunday. For a fourth term, the former metal worker bet on his popularity and on a positive outcome for an economy that regained its vitality after a period of decline. But in the face of pressure from Donald Trump, Lula is finding it difficult to rally supporters for his policies, to the point that he has become close in opinion polls with his far-right rival, Flavio Bolsonaro.

Published on: 02/10/2026 - 20:19

Almost four decades after his first presidential run in Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is trying again. The former metal worker is participating in his seventh presidential election on Sunday, October 4, hoping to obtain a fourth term at the helm of the largest economy in Latin America.

But Lula previously confirmed that his career as president of Brazil would end at the end of his third term. “If I am elected, I will only be president for one term,” a promise he made to his voters days before the second round against Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. The reason was the importance of “seeing new leaders emerge on the political scene.”

Four years later, he's back in the race, even if he has to reassure people about his age. “I'm in great shape,” he said when officially announcing his candidacy in August, extolling the merits of his exercise routine. But he repeated his promise: this time, it is “final” and, if Brazilians elect him again, “[my term] will be my last.”

Two days before the first round, the one who will celebrate his 81st birthday on October 27 remains the eternal leader of the Brazilian left and the only one capable of confronting Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair, the former president who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for an attempted coup against legitimacy. Opinion polls currently give close results for the candidates, in a highly polarized election where other candidates are confined to the role of extras.

Read also: Presidential elections in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro, in the name of the father and children and sacred “Bolsonism”

The factory as a school

To run for this fourth term, Lula bet on a proven recipe: demonstrating his closeness to popular circles.

Lula comes from a poor family in Pernambuco, and spent his childhood as a labourer, shoe shiner and reporter in São Paulo, before training as a turner. Thus, in the factory, among the ranks of the trade unions, his political career was shaped. He became famous for becoming one of the faces of major strikes in the metal sector in the state of São Paulo during the last years of the military dictatorship (1964-1985).

In Brazil, “politics must be understood beyond the partisan framework. When we talk about social policy, we see that Lula understands well the daily life and difficulties of ordinary residents,” comments Marcia Dias, Director of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro. She adds: "Through his story as an immigrant from the northeast, the son of a single mother, trying to survive in a big city like São Paulo, he embodies the Brazilian spirit for many."

It is therefore no coincidence that Lula chose, almost half a century later, to launch his 2026 presidential campaign in the state of São Paulo, at the Villa Euclid stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, the scene of mass workers' rallies in the late 1970s. In his first speech in the campaign, he adhered to his “popular origins,” praising his mother and talking at length about his union years.

Winning recipe in 2002

In front of the crowd that came to support him, Lula hinted at his treatment for skin cancer. “I will challenge my health and tip my hat to you,” he said. He also reviewed the successes of his previous governments.

Lula can also boast a record political longevity: few Latin American political officials have remained so long in the public eye. His political career officially began in 1980, when he co-founded the Labor Party. His attempts to reach the presidency in 1989, 1994 and 1998 ended in defeats. The reason is clear: the former trade unionist was then arousing the suspicion of part of the middle class, especially employers.

He understood that to gain power, he would have to expand his political alliances and change his image. A transformation that would lead, at the beginning of the millennium, to the emergence of his slogan, “Lolinia, Peace and Love.” Suddenly, what was seen as a militant and radical union leader appeared in smart suits, called for “national reconciliation” and began a process of cajoling business.

The recipe worked. In 2002, he won the presidency with more than 60 percent of the vote in the second round and became the first worker to enter the Planalto Palace. He was then re-elected four years later.

His first two terms coincided with a period of strong economic growth and were marked by social measures that changed the lives of millions of people. Among them are the "Bolsa Familia", targeted assistance for low-income families, or an increase in the minimum wage. What pushed Lula to exceptional levels of popularity among the popular classes.

Corruption scandals

But these years were also marked by several scandals that distorted the president's image, even expelling him from political life. Among them is the scandal of an alleged vote-buying network in parliament organized by the Leftist Party between 2002 and 2005, the largest scandal of embezzlement of public funds uncovered in Brazil.

In 2017, Lula was convicted of passive corruption and money laundering. He spent 580 days in prison and was declared ineligible for the 2018 elections. This decision was eventually overturned in 2021 by the Federal Supreme Court, which held that the court did not have jurisdiction, and then criticized the judge of the time, Sergio Moro, for bias in some proceedings.

Lula ran again for the presidential election in 2022. He narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro and regained the Planalto Palace.

Despite the scandals, the leftist leader knew how to maintain his popularity among the population, analyzes Marcia Dias. She explains: “At least 30 percent of Lula’s voters never believed the corruption accusations against him and never stopped supporting him. When his conviction was overturned, part of those who were disillusioned began to believe in him again.”

Average economic outcome

But Lula, who returned to power in 2022, found a country very different from the one he ruled between 2003 and 2010. He reaches the end of this third term with a relatively good outcome. The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in history, inflation has slowed significantly, the poverty rate has declined, and at the end of May the government approved a reduction in weekly working time.

However, on the other hand, growth has slowed, public debt has increased, and the household indebtedness rate remains high. In other words, for a large portion of Brazilians, some economic indicators are not showing improvement in their wallets.

This is an important reason why the president running for re-election has moved away from the levels of popularity with which he ended his second term. According to the latest Datafolia poll, published on September 24, 34 percent of Brazilians see his administration as good or excellent, compared to 40 percent who see it as bad or very bad. More broadly, 47% say they “approve” of Lula and 50% “disapprove.”

Security and a series of controversies

The issues of cost of living and balancing public accounts weighed heavily on the octogenarian candidate's campaign. Another shadow in the picture: the difficult issue of insecurity that remains, even if Lula tries to develop a plan to combat it in the spring.

But the fundamental discussions about his tally have been overshadowed in recent months by numerous controversies and scandals. The latest example was last weekend: Flavio Bolsonaro (an evangelical) was forced to swear that he did not wish to revoke the status of “patron saint of Brazil” from Our Lady of Aparecida. In the aftermath, Lula and his companion took the opportunity to appear with representations of this black virgin, the symbol of Brazilian miscegenation.

However, no PT figure has emerged as an alternative to Lula in recent years. In 46 years, this party has had governors, ministers, mayors and other presidential candidates, but it has never been able to find someone of Lula's caliber. In 2018, Fernando Haddad replaced him and lost the election to Bolsonaro. In 2022 and 2026, the party once again turned to its founder. He did not find an alternative, while Lula was saying in 2022 that he wanted to take advantage of his mandate to prepare new leaders.

“Lula’s leadership is also very important for the party,” Marcia Dias recalls. “He is the founder of a workers’ party that represents the social movements of the 1970s, and it is the largest party not only in Brazil, but also in Latin America.”

She adds: “The last time Lula was able to pass on the torch was with Dilma Rousseff,” referring to the woman who led Brazil between 2011 and 2016. “It is true that new leaders are likely needed at this moment. But as of today, no one is better armed to confront the threat of the return of Bolsonaro’s radical neoliberalism.”

The shadow of Donald Trump

There is another major factor: the influence of Donald Trump, which is pushing the far right everywhere in South America.

The US president has not publicly offered his support to Flavio Bolsonaro, but he did not hesitate to hit Brazil in July with high tariffs that Brasilia called “illegal.” A burning file for the Brazilian president as the presidential elections approach. On Wednesday, representatives of Brazil and the United States held a meeting in Brasilia about the trade relationship between the two countries, which the Brazilian authorities considered a “constructive” dialogue.

Although he needs to take into account relations with Washington, Lula is doing everything to present himself as a bulwark against American imperialism. On the UN stage, he stressed last week that his country would never be “anyone’s backyard.” In return, he shows a desire to "deepen" Brazil's relations with China and other BRICS members, while advocating the use of strategic resources such as rare earths to stimulate the country's industrial development.

The original text is in Spanish / Guido Boardman, prepared in Arabic by / Hussein Amara

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