Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have returned to the forefront after the UAE’s decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance, which, according to analysts, constitutes a strategic break with the oil management system led by Riyadh, as part of the reshaping of the balance of power as a result of the Iran war.

Published on: 04/30/2026 - 08:51

Analysts considered that the UAE’s decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance reflects years of tension with Saudi Arabia. Political analysts and regional experts said that the step to withdraw from the two groups, which was announced on Tuesday, is bigger than just a dispute over production quotas in OPEC, which Gulf sources say Abu Dhabi believes is biased against it.

They added that this step is part of a deeper rift in relations, as Abu Dhabi works to give priority to independence and its progress over submission to Riyadh, and uses oil as a tool to express this independence and express rejection of dictates.

They pointed out that this separation goes beyond the limits of politics and extends to the core of the personal and strategic relationship between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

“There is something dangerous happening in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE... a division that is much more dangerous than we think,” said Fawaz Girgis of the London School of Economics. He added, "What we are witnessing now is a kind of separation between the two most powerful leaders in the Gulf."

Read also: The UAE announces its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance

Strategic separation

Informed Gulf sources described the UAE move as the culmination of a strategic separation from the Saudi-led oil management, driven by years of disagreement over the conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, energy shares, and differing visions for the regime in the Gulf. The sources said that the UAE will be able to impose direct control over the way its surplus oil capacity is used, casting aside assumptions that Gulf energy policy remains linked to Riyadh or is restricted by Saudi hegemony.

Emirati analyst Abdul Khaleq Abdullah said that the step taken by the “new, more assertive Emirates” was formed in part because of the regional war and in the other part as part of a reassessment of national interests. He added that there is little similarity between OPEC today and the organization that the UAE joined six decades ago, describing the system as now being effectively managed by the largest producers.

He said, "Saudi Arabia and Russia (an OPEC+ member) dictate and manipulate decisions... and do everything to advance their own interests at the expense of others. They do not listen to anyone."

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The US-Israeli war on Iran exacerbated regional instability, as Tehran attacked Gulf states that house US military bases and largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for transporting global energy supplies. The sources said that the conflict increases economic pressure on the UAE, giving it a greater incentive to break free from the restrictions of oil production quotas imposed by OPEC.

Read also live coverage of the latest developments in the war in the Middle East

Ibtisam Al Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Center, said that strict energy quota systems have become increasingly inconsistent with reality in a region facing instability, supply risks, and the constant threat of interruption of energy flows. She added that, as a result, the UAE is sending clear signals that it will not mortgage its production in Saudi Arabia.

She explained, "I will not depend on Saudi Arabia and its decisions. I mean, I am not leaving an organization, but I am leaving a complete model for managing the oil market. I mean, the UAE is not withdrawing from global oil, but is repositioning itself as one of the architects of this system."

The interests of the UAE first

In response to questions about this article, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the matters contained in the questions are not consistent with the facts. It reaffirmed a statement issued Tuesday by the Ministry of Energy, which said that the UAE’s decision was carefully considered and came after a comprehensive review of its production policy, as well as its current and future capacity.

She said that the decision was based on national interests and a commitment to contribute effectively to meeting urgent needs in the market. An Emirati official said that the extraordinary Gulf summit held in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss the regional crisis was “a good first step in the right direction,” adding, “There is still a lot to be done in light of these unstable circumstances.” The official stated that the UAE is reviewing the "importance and feasibility" of its role and contributions in general to multilateral organizations.

Repercussions of the Iran war

Since the beginning of the war, security concerns have been particularly important in the UAE. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE, criticized the Gulf allies on Monday for their reaction to the strikes launched by Iran following the American and Israeli attacks on it, which focused largely on using air defense systems to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones. He described their position as "historically the weakest."

Aaron David Miller, a former American negotiator, said that Abu Dhabi has concluded that its security depends on the two parties that stood by it strongly during a landmark crisis - namely Israel and the United States. Israel provided the UAE with interceptor missiles, in addition to an air defense system that it had purchased and installed earlier.

He said that this was of "extreme importance" and emphasized a strategic bet that the UAE made years ago to strengthen relations with Washington as well as consolidate a security partnership with Israel. These decisions formed part of a gradual shift in relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the past few years.

Regional rivalry

After the Arab uprisings of 2011, the two countries moved in sync to curb political Islam, confront Iran, and impose a stable regional order. But behind this rapprochement lay a fundamental difference: Saudi Arabia saw itself as the natural center of power in the Gulf, while the UAE sought a more flexible and interconnected model based on ports, finance, and local influence.

As pressures eased, those differences came to the surface, transforming harmony into parallel - and ultimately divergent - visions of the regional order. The conflict in Yemen between the Houthis and government forces crystallized this division, as the joint intervention made way for the pursuit of two opposing ends, as Riyadh supported a unified state consistent with its interests, while Abu Dhabi supported the southern forces to secure maritime influence.

This dispute extended to Sudan, where both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh supported one of the competing sides of the civil war. Since then, competition has moved to the areas of economics and energy, where it has the greatest impact. Saudi Vision 2030, a framework aimed at diversifying the kingdom's economy away from oil, has led to intense competition for investment, logistics and regional leadership. The division was also evident in relations with Israel. The UAE hastened to normalize relations within the framework of what is known as the Abraham Accords, and strengthened security and economic ties. As for Saudi Arabia, it hesitated, as it was constrained by internal, religious, and geopolitical calculations, which means that official normalization entails much higher risks for Riyadh.

France 24/Reuters

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