After a summer of 2026 marked by heatwaves, droughts and fires, a study by the Destin Commun think tank reveals that the worsening of climate change is now the external threat that worries the French the most, before terrorism, an economic crisis or even an armed conflict.

Published on: 10/11/2026 - 00:02

Between the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the global economic situation and the emergence of forgotten diseases, world news regularly offers many reasons for concern to the French. But today, of all external threats, it is climate change and its effects that concern them the most, reveals a study published Tuesday, November 10 by the Destin Commun think tank.

The assessment drawn up is based on a survey carried out among 4,000 people and on six discussion groups held last August. Asked about the external threats which, according to them, weigh the most on France's security in the next five years, 40% answered "the worsening of global warming and extreme weather events", before religious or identity-based terrorism (38%), the risk of a global economic crisis (35%) and that of an armed conflict in Europe (34%).

However, on this last point, the prospect of a war in Europe, mainly driven by the conflict in Ukraine, continues to loom large. Among those surveyed, 75% said they were worried, and 30% very worried.

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“But this fear has been decreasing in intensity in recent months, undoubtedly because the war in Ukraine is less in the news due to the situation in the Middle East,” notes Stewart Chau, deputy director general of Common Destiny and co-editor of the study. “On the other hand, after a summer of 2026 marked by the concrete effects of climate change, this threat emerges as a priority issue for many French people.”

From distant scenario to imminent threat

For a long time, explains the specialist, the consequences of worsening climate change were more or less dystopian scenarios: we projected what the world would look like in ten, twenty or fifty years. “But with the summer of 2026, there was a change of scale. Today, we are facing a threat that seems imminent, with concrete consequences, close to us, that we fear,” he observes.

With its repeated heatwaves, its extraordinary drought and the scale of its fires, the summer has indeed given the French a very concrete overview of the impacts of climate change, as they had long been predicted by scientists.

A previous study by Destin Commun, published in September, analyzed how this had marked a turning point in their relationship with the climate. Eco-anxiety, she revealed, exploded: 67% of respondents said they were more worried than before the summer about global warming.

In more detail, 23% of people surveyed explained that they felt particularly concerned by the fires. With a threat that has come closer: 4% say they have been directly threatened, 16% say they know someone close to them affected.

“There was already a latent concern for some French people but the summer came to amplify everything. Now, we are experiencing a concern shared by a majority of those interviewed,” summarizes Stewart Chau. "It makes sense. The closer a threat gets, the more it becomes a cause for concern for the population."

A shared concern, but stronger on the left

As the French presidential election approaches, the study also highlights how this fear of global warming now transcends all political divisions. “There are very few French people today, whatever their political side, who are completely closed to the ecological subject,” continues Stewart Chau.

Climate change therefore appears to be one of the five priority external threats across the political spectrum, from LFI to Reconquête!. However, the hierarchy is reversed between left and right.

“Sympathizers on the left prioritize the worsening of climate change, those on the right first point out the terrorist risk,” points out the study. In detail, this is the main fear for LFI voters (55%) and Ecologists (78%), just before the armed conflict in Europe (36 and 35%). On the right, religious terrorism comes first for 50% of LR respondents and 57% for RN. In these two parties, warming only ranks fourth.

Beyond the political divide, the divide is also generational. Among 18-24 year olds, 49% identify the climate as their main source of concern.

For Stewart Chau, the observation is therefore clear: the subject will weigh in at the ballot boxes in May 2027. "There is today a clear expectation in terms of ecology and this crosses all political parties", he insists. “This means, for the candidates, to hold a speech which includes the environmental question in all the issues: it is no longer a question of talking about purchasing power, the economy or even health without talking about the environment.”

A global problem

“But the French clearly identify two complementary scales of action in the face of the climate challenge: national and international. International cooperation is essential in their eyes to respond to the climate challenge,” continues the specialist.

For 87% of those questioned, climate change has no borders and requires mutual assistance between countries. More precisely, for 33% of respondents, if there is one subject on which France is more effective when acting with other countries than alone, it is climate change, on par with humanitarian aid.

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But more generally, only 9% of French people consider that there is no area in which France is more effective by acting with others rather than alone. “It’s a unanimous call for multilateralism,” says Stewart Chau.

And in their global perception of the climate crisis, the French are also well aware of the inequality of responsibilities and consequences: 66% of French people agree with the idea that “people in poor countries pollute less than those in rich countries, but suffer more of the consequences of climate change.” Faced with this argument alone, 37% believe that this justifies France's public development aid.

The study, however, points to a paradox. Despite this stated desire for mutual and global aid, nearly six in ten French people (58%) believe that France no longer has the economic means for a policy of international solidarity, while the international aid budget has increased from 6.7 billion euros in the finance law for 2024 to 3.6 billion in that for 2026.

Turn to the EU

In this call for multilateralism, it is towards the European Union that the French want to turn, concludes Stewart Chau. “In a context where the United States is less and less considered as an ally, they want to see the European Union strengthened, more sovereign economically and diplomatically,” he explains. “But the environmental issue may be a way of putting European sovereignty back in the spotlight.” According to the study, more than one in two French people want to strengthen the autonomy of the European Union in the face of Donald Trump's policies.

Candidates for the presidential election will certainly have all these expectations in mind as the election approaches. From Jean-Luc Mélenchon to Raphaël Glucksmann, they are starting to come up with programs that give pride of place to ecology.

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