Credit, Reuters
Votes for the midterm elections in the United States are still being counted, but the political scenario is already turning to the 2028 presidential race.
Buoyed by significant victories in Congress, Democrats have gained momentum as they prepare to compete to succeed President Donald Trump.
But a good performance in the midterm elections does not guarantee winning the White House two years later. Democrat Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012, despite big Republican victories in 2010.
There are officially no candidates to succeed Trump, but potential names are preparing behind the scenes.
Statements by Vice President JD Vance reflecting on Republican defeats in the midterms were interpreted as preparation for a 2028 candidacy.
The results of last Tuesday's election and the historic magnitude of Democratic gains could shape the race for the White House in several ways. Here are four points observed in the midterms that give clues about what the next American presidential race might look like.
1. Big midterm winners now have momentum
Several potential presidential candidates ran in the midterms, and some of them stood out.
Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff won by a considerable margin in the state, which Trump won in 2024.
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Although he has already stated that he does not intend to run for president, his successful campaign, which went viral on the internet, promoted Ossoff nationally.
Another potential Democratic candidate, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, handily defeated his Republican opponent.
Shapiro has not committed to a run in 2028, but analysts point to his widespread popularity in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, as a sign he could be competitive nationally.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also won after a campaign that analysts in his state described as a "warm-up" for a presidential bid.
California Governor Gavin Newsom was unable to run for reelection in the midterm elections, but he is interested in the outcome of a popular initiative to tax billionaires — which he campaigned against because he considered the change could scare away the rich and lead to revenue losses in the state.
On the Republican side, there were two names with the potential to run in 2028 in Arkansas.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton and Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders — former press secretary in the Trump administration — managed to remain in office by a smaller margin than before, both winning just over half of the votes in the conservative state.
2. JD Vance and Trump allies under pressure
Exit polls suggest the negative tide for Republicans was due in part to anger felt by voters over the Trump administration's actions.
This could pose a challenge to his potential successors in the presidential cabinet, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“The only person who was seriously harmed by this election campaign was Vance,” says Karen Beckwith, professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.
Vance has already sought to distance himself from the defeat — and from a foreign policy adventure in Iran that was politically disastrous for his party.
"The reason for our defeat was the war," he wrote on the social network X.
Rubio denied rumors that he was considering leaving office to run for president in 2028.
But other potential Republican candidates could benefit from not being part of the administration. Some have already taken a stance on what went wrong and what the next steps are.
In a long post on
"It's dark now, but it's always darkest before dawn, and morning is coming," he wrote. "That is my fervent prayer and that is my commitment to you."
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who abandoned his 2024 presidential bid days before the Republican primaries in which he would have faced Trump, was also critical. He highlighted his party's victories in Florida as a sign of what can be achieved.
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3. Left and center Democrats eye the future
Both the centrist and left wings of the Democratic Party claimed victory with the midterms results, as each side analyzes its possible candidates for 2028.
Dozens of people are already mobilizing for 2028, Jim Messina, a former Obama adviser, told the BBC.
El-Sayed's victory in Michigan was a defining moment for left-wing Democrats, as he triumphed in a swing state.
His supporters now claim his victory could boost left-wing candidates in the 2028 elections.
“The old notions of electability are behind us, and bold populist economists from outside the establishment have proven they can win in swing states,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
Green adds that "the outlook is ripe" for candidates like New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run in the primaries.
Moderate Democrats also claimed victories across the country. The "Blue Dog Caucus", a group of moderate and conservative Democrats, won at least 14 seats in Congress, almost doubling its current size.
This has led many within this segment of the party to argue that centrist candidates who present themselves as pragmatic and willing to work with conservatives could attract Republican voters.
Given the success of Democratic candidates who have focused on cost-of-living issues, it is likely that an economy-first approach will again be a focus two years from now.
Amirah Siquierah, director of federal affairs for the Working Families Party, said that the victorious candidates in 2028 will combine economic populism with new concerns, such as data centers (large data processing centers that allow the internet and digital services to operate).
4. The electorate belongs to no one
Credit, Getty Images
Both parties will have to deal with a changing political landscape and an unstable coalition of support for 2028.
Regions of the country once considered "safe" for Republicans can no longer be seen as conservative strongholds.
Texas now has just one Republican candidate at the state level, meaning its 40 electoral college votes could be up for grabs in 2028.
Christina Pascucci, a political analyst and former Senate candidate from California, said the midterm elections "challenged long-held political assumptions" and showed that "neither party can afford to take its traditional strongholds for granted."
This applies to both Democrats and Republicans, who will need to win over undecided voters, adds Pascucci, executive director of consultancy Atlas Global.
"Neither party owns these voters", he summarizes.
Latino and working-class voters who supported Trump took a step back, reversing many of the gains he had made with those constituencies in his successful 2024 campaign.
Driena Sixto, a former spokeswoman for Turning Point USA and a conservative political commentator, tells the BBC she believes Republicans will have to change their message to Latino voters before 2028.
“Last time, the campaign message was about safe communities and combating human trafficking,” she said.
"After the president took office, I think a lot of the White House messaging put too much emphasis on deportations. That was the cause of the division."
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