The midterm elections in the United States are just a few days away, when voters will participate in a vote that could have a major impact on the remainder of President Donald Trump's term in office — scheduled to end in January 2029.
What are midterms?
On November 3, Americans will choose members of Congress, made up of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The University of Florida's Election Lab is monitoring the number of people who voted in advance and found, this Monday (2/11), that 54.5 million people have already voted.
Of this total, 30 million voted in person, while 24 million sent their votes by mail. The majority of voters who participated in early voting were over 41 years old.
Elections are held every two years, and when they occur in the middle of a president's four-year term, they are called midterm elections.
One of Congress's main tasks is to create and pass federal laws, which are applied throughout the country.
The outcome of the midterm elections will decide which political party — Trump's Republicans or the opposition Democrats — will control Congress and how easy it will be for the president to execute his plans.
The results are also seen as a metric of the American population's satisfaction with the president's performance to date.
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Who will be elected?
All 435 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, will be elected. They serve fixed terms of two years. The Chamber is generally the place where bills are presented and debated.
Meanwhile, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber, will also be up for grabs. Senators serve six-year terms. Among other functions, they approve or veto bills that come from the Chamber of Deputies.
On the same day, voters across much of the US will also choose politicians at the state level. The gubernatorial elections in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan are among those attracting the most attention.
Michigan is even one of the few decisive races that will ultimately determine control of the Senate.
The seat is currently held by a retiring Democrat; the last time a Republican was elected to this Senate seat was in 1994. However, in presidential elections, the state is one of the key battlegrounds — Michigan voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but for Donald Trump in 2024.
What issues are being most debated in this election?
The U.S. economy is on the minds of many Americans as they face rising fuel, food, healthcare and housing prices.
Inflation remains above the target sought by the US Federal Reserve (the central bank), in part due to the war that the US and Israel started with Iran in February.
Democrats argue that Trump's tariffs on several countries have also raised prices for Americans.
Immigration is another crucial issue. Republicans say Trump has fulfilled a key 2024 campaign promise by beefing up border security and launching a strong — and often controversial — crackdown on illegal immigration.
Concern about artificial intelligence (AI) has become more urgent in recent weeks. High-ranking politicians from both parties agreed on the need to regulate it, opposing Trump, who rejects proposed laws to control the development of this technology.
Credit, Reuters
What's at stake?
The legislature is one of the three powers of the State, along with the Executive (represented at federal level by the presidency) and the Judiciary. Control over it is important for drafting laws.
Both the House of Representatives and the Senate are currently controlled by the Republican Party. But the majority are small. They have 218 seats in the Chamber, which is the minimum number needed to control it, plus an independent who votes with them.
In the Senate, they have 53 seats. The upper chamber will only change hands if Democrats win at least 51 seats, which would overcome the tie-breaking vote of the vice president — currently a Republican — if both sides win 50 seats.
If opposition Democrats regain control of at least one of the legislative houses, they will have the power to present their own laws for a vote.
Trump has stated that if Democrats take over Congress, he will become "Mr. Veto."
In an interview broadcast on Sunday by Fox News, Trump stated that he would veto the legislative proposals initially, and only then begin negotiating agreements.
"It wouldn't be the first time. You have a president, but you don't have the House or the Senate. They send bills, you veto them, and after a month or two of everything being vetoed... they end up coming to negotiate an agreement," he said.
Still, the president remains optimistic about his party's chances in the midterm elections, adding, "We hope we don't have to worry about that."
Trump has repeatedly urged voters to act as if his name were on the ballot in the midterm elections. He hopes this — coupled with his intense campaign activity — will convince his supporters to show up at the polls.
Many of his faithful followers of the MAGA movement usually vote in presidential elections, but don't bother to participate in the midterm elections.
However, by placing himself at the center of the Republican Party's campaign, President Trump also risks bringing to the polls voters who do not like him or his policies — voters who will vote against his candidates.
Polls indicate an increase in support for Democrats and significant losses for Republicans. However, as polls have underestimated support for Trump in the past, they may not be correct this year.
"If we don't win the midterm elections, they're going to blame me," Trump said at a rally in Tennessee last month.
Where will the competition be fiercest?
Credit, Getty Images
In the past, voters tended to "punish" the president's party by voting against him.
Recent polls show that Trump has a low approval rating. He began his second term with the approval of just over 50% of the population, according to the Silver Bulletin polling website. At the beginning of October, this index was lower, around 37%. Meanwhile, 61% disapproved of him.
But not all seats in each legislative house will actually be contested. Some have safe bets, in some cases for Republicans and in others for Democrats.
CBS News, the BBC's partner in the US, has identified ten Senate races that deserve attention, in states such as Iowa and New Hampshire; and 42 races for the House of Representatives, in states such as Arizona and Ohio.
This year's vote is more unpredictable due to a dispute between the two parties over how electoral districts in the House of Representatives are defined.
Republicans tried to gain an advantage by creating more favorable electoral maps in certain states, and Democrats followed suit.
What does this election mean for Trump?
The midterms will be voters' last verdict on the Trump administration before its end, explains Anthony Zurcher, BBC North America correspondent.
If Democrats win the House or Senate, Trump will have difficulty passing any legislation through Congress — although the Republican has already demonstrated a willingness to advance his agenda through executive orders, which do not require Congress.
But Democratic control of either house would make it easier to use committees to investigate aspects of Trump's presidency. Parliamentarians could summon public servants to testify and request documents.
Corruption accusations, the controversial new White House ballroom and the tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) could come under scrutiny.
There is also a debate within the Democratic Party about whether or not to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump, presenting accusations in Congress that would serve as the basis for a political, rather than criminal, trial.
If they gain control of the Senate, Democrats could make it more difficult for Trump to nominate high-ranking judges and positions, including the Supreme Court.
But, if the Republican Party maintains control of Congress, Trump will be able to more easily continue his plans for the remainder of his term.
What could the election indicate about 2028?
The president's name is not on the ballot during the midterm elections, although Trump has asked voters to pretend it is as a way of endorsing his administration so far.
Regardless of the result, analysts are likely to use it as a barometer of how voters feel about the country's direction under Trump's leadership.
The Republican cannot run for president for a third time, since, according to the Constitution, a person cannot serve more than two terms as president in the USA.
After the midterm elections, we can expect speculation to begin about who might be his successor as the Republican candidate for president in 2028 — and who might compete against him for the Democratic Party.
*With reporting by Deirdre Finnerty
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