Panama City (AFP) – Starting Friday, the Panama Canal will restrict the transit of ships for the second time in its history due to the drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon, a new distortion for global maritime trade.

First modification: 09/03/2026 - 20:19

The route, which connects the Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic and through which 5% of that trade passes, will gradually reduce the number of ships that can cross daily from 36 to 32.

It seeks to save water, in the face of a drought that will last until mid-2027 and forced the country to be declared on alert.

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) also began to reduce the draft of ships (level at which they sink) from 15.24 to 14.63 meters.

Water conditions are "challenging" due to "the possibility of a strong El Niño phenomenon," said Ilya Espino de Marotta, who will take over the direction of the canal next Monday.

Water, canal motor

The 80-kilometer Panama Canal runs on fresh water obtained mainly from the rain it stores in its artificial lakes in Gatún and Alhajuela.

Water is vital for the operation of the locks, a type of water elevators that raise ships about 26 meters from sea level to Gatun Lake. Boats pass through it to reach the opposite end, where other locks lower them on their way.

Each ship uses about 200 million liters that are dumped into the sea.

Water "is the most important resource for the operation," but "between April and August the accumulated rainfall deficit was 35.8% below the historical average" and there are "no signs of short-term recovery," Erick Córdoba, hydrometeorology manager of the canal, told AFP.

Somber prospect

Forecasts indicate that the 2027 dry season (January-April) will start earlier and extend until May, so there could be new restrictions.

In 2023 and 2024, El Niño has already forced daily transits to be reduced to 22 and the maximum draft to 13.41 meters. That led to 20% fewer ships and 17% less tonnage, in addition to long lines to enter.

"If we do not manage to fill the lakes in November, we have to tighten our belts" because "possibly restrictions very similar to those of 2023 and 2024" would come, former canal administrator Jorge Quijano warned AFP.

Between October 2024 and September 2025, some 13,400 ships transited with 489 million tons of cargo. Revenues totaled $5.7 billion.

Global impact

If the restrictions last, "higher shipping costs and longer waiting times can be expected," which could impact the prices of goods, Rebecca Bill, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, told AFP.

According to Quijano, for every 30 centimeters that the draft drops, a ship stops transporting an average of 200 containers. That represents hundreds of units for large ships that can carry up to 16,000.

"We are going to have a significant impact on the container sector," the one that gives the canal the best income, he said.

However, the Danish shipping company Maersk stated that it is still "too early" to "speculate" about the effects.

The route mainly connects China, South Korea and Japan with the United States, from which seven out of every 10 containers that pass through the canal arrive or leave.

An increase in costs would "potentially affect US trade," analyst Natasha Lindstaedt of the British University of Essex told AFP.

President Donald Trump could even argue "that trust and reliability have been lost" in the channel, he added.

Due to the war between the United States and Iran, the route had increased its transit because some shipping companies chose it as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz to transport gas and oil.

The difficulties on both routes "put real pressure on global supply chains," Bill noted.

Far solution

The ACP plans to build a new 4,600-hectare reservoir on the Indio River, west of the canal, to prevent future droughts from affecting its operation.

In addition, the canal basin supplies drinking water to half of the country of 4.6 million inhabitants, with an infrastructure designed almost a century ago.

The canal authority assures that the new reservoir is the "most viable" option to supply water to the canal and the population "for the next 50 years", but the works would not be ready before 2031.

© 2026 AFP

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