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The hypothesis of an “end of the world” is widely resurfacing on social networks and in several Arab media, as Friday November 13, 2026 approaches. This date is associated with a scientific study published 66 years ago, which focused on the future evolution of the world population on Earth.
This theory is based on a study published by three researchers in the American scientific journal *Science*, on November 4, 1960, under an evocative title: "Doomsday Day: Friday November 13".
In their work, the researchers argued that if global population growth continued according to the trend observed over approximately two millennia, the human population would reach — theoretically, according to their mathematical model — infinity in November 2026.
But were the researchers really talking about the annihilation of humanity? And does this date have any scientific significance regarding the occurrence of a planetary catastrophe or an event likely to end life on Earth?
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Where did the story begin?
Photo credit, SOCIALMEDIA
The origins of this study go back to the Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster, who carried out this work in collaboration with researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot, while they all worked in the department of electrical engineering at the University of Illinois, in the United States.
The researchers relied on a series of historical estimates of the world population – 24 in number, covering the period from the beginning of the Christian era until 1958 – in order to understand the evolution of human numbers throughout history.
Far from being satisfied with the hypothesis of demographic growth at a constant rate, they developed a mathematical model based on the concept of accelerated growth, or "hyperbolic growth": not only does the population increase, but the very pace of this increase accelerates over time.
The model posits that the ability of human beings to communicate, cooperate and form societies and alliances allows them to develop ways to overcome certain environmental constraints, thereby increasing their chances of survival and reproduction.
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By applying this equation to historical data, the researchers found that the mathematical model reaches a "singularity" in 2026.87, or around mid-November.
This is how the date November 13, 2026 appeared in the title of the study: it corresponds to the moment when, according to the model's predictions, the population would become infinite, if growth continued following the same hypotheses.
At first glance, the title of the study could be taken for the announcement of a prophecy about the end of the world; however, the meaning is quite different.
Researchers do not mention the collision of an asteroid with the Earth, nor the explosion of the Sun, nor devastating earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; nor do they set a date for the annihilation of humanity by natural disaster.
They actually use the concept of "doomsday" to refer to a theoretical mathematical point where, according to their equation, population growth would reach an infinite value — a physically impossible phenomenon.
In other words, this "infinity" does not correspond to a real number of human beings living on Earth, but constitutes a mathematical result obtained by projecting a given model into the future, under the assumption that the initial conditions remain unchanged.
A careful reading of the original study reveals that the researchers were aware of the limitations of this model: it cannot be applied without taking into account the influence of the environment, resources and conditions surrounding the population — all factors likely to affect birth and death rates, and thus modify the trajectory of population growth.
What is the connection with Michel Takla's article published in 1964?
Among the press documents that have resurfaced in this context, we find an extract from the Egyptian newspaper "Watani", dated November 29, 1964. Signed by the author Michel Takla, this article evokes the end of the world for November 13, 2026.
The republication by Egyptian media of an image from this old article has sparked renewed interest in the story, more than six decades after its initial publication.
However, it is important to distinguish the press article from the original scientific study. The study mentioning the date November 13, 2026 was published in 1960 by Von Foerster and colleagues; it was therefore not developed by Michel Takla.
Furthermore, recent media coverage presents divergent versions of the content of Takla's article: some media associate it with a study on population growth, while others attribute hypotheses linked to solar activity, climate change and natural disasters.
It is therefore inappropriate to merge these hypotheses into a single scientific theory, or to consider the whole as coming from Von Foerster's study, without consulting the full text of the original article and comparing it to the scientific source in question.
“Solar activity”
Among the stories that appeared in certain articles linked to Michel Takla's text, we find the mention of exceptional solar activity planned for November 13, 2026, which would lead to magnetic disturbances and natural disasters.
However, actual solar storms should not be confused with the assertion that a specific solar disaster will occur on a specific date.
Solar activity is a well-known natural phenomenon: the Sun goes through cycles during which its activity level varies, sometimes giving rise to coronal mass ejections and solar flares that can affect the Earth's magnetic field.
Intense solar storms can effectively disrupt communications, satellites and navigation systems, and can also affect power grids.
However, the existence of these risks does not mean that the Sun will cause the destruction of the Earth on a specific date.
Furthermore, the demographic study published in the journal *Science* in 1960 provides no proof of a link between the date of November 13, 2026 and solar activity, nor with the occurrence of geological or climatic disasters.
“No sign of exceptional events on November 13”
In response to claims circulating about an astronomical danger threatening Earth on November 13, 2026, astronomer Imad Mujahed said solar activity reaches its peak this year. However, he clarified that this phenomenon has been known to scientists for decades and constitutes neither a sudden event nor an unforeseen development.
Mr Mujahed told the BBC that solar activity follows natural cycles and that solar storms are phenomena that have occurred since the birth of the Universe. He added that scientific and technological advances now allow researchers to observe, track and predict them with much greater precision than in the past.
He stressed that no astronomical event, known or anticipated, is planned for November 13 that would cause concern or fear about the security of the Earth.
As for the possibility of determining a date for the end of the world using mathematical equations or astronomical models, Mr. Mujahed dismissed this idea, saying that no clue, in astronomy or cosmology, suggests an imminent end of the world.
He noted that the allegations circulating around this date are not based on any statements or warnings from astronomical specialists; they are simply relayed by various individuals or entities on different platforms, without the slightest scientific basis.
These clarifications aim to distinguish well-known natural phenomena — such as solar activity cycles and solar storms — from interpretations that associate them with unfounded predictions about the end of the world.
Why did the 1960 calculations not materialize?
The fundamental problem with applying the old equation to the reality of 2026 is the assumption that the previous population growth pattern would continue without substantial changes.
However, over the last decades, the world has experienced major demographic, social and economic transformations, which have had a direct impact on birth and death rates and population growth.
According to demographic data, the growth rate of the world's population reached its peak in the 1960s, before beginning a gradual decline.
This means that the actual trajectory of population growth did not fit into the mathematical curve used by researchers in 1960.
Thus, the world population - estimated at around three billion inhabitants at the time of the study's publication - has exceeded eight billion, without however approaching, in any way, the infinity postulated by the equation.
For their part, recent United Nations estimates present a very different picture from the scenario envisaged by the old study.
According to the report "World Population Prospects 2024", published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the world population is expected to increase from around 8.2 billion people in 2024 to almost 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, before beginning a gradual decline to reach around 10.2 billion people by 2100.
UN estimates indicate that it is now more likely that the world's population will peak in the current century, due to a faster-than-expected decline in fertility rates in several highly populated countries.
These projections reflect a significant evolution in the nature of demographic challenges: in many countries, the problem is no longer limited to the sole fear of overpopulation; it now includes the decline in the birth rate, the rise in the average age and the increase in the number of elderly people.
Therefore, current population trends do not support the assumption behind the 1960 equation.
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