Americans will go to the polls this Tuesday (3/11) to decide what the remainder of Donald Trump's term as President will be like.
Thousands of electoral disputes will be held throughout the United States, at different levels of government. But the main event for voters will be the choice of members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two Houses that make up Congress.
Both are currently controlled by the Republicans, the president's party. The success or failure of Trump's final two years in office may depend on the outcome of these elections.
This is our visual guide to where the power struggle will be decided — from approval ratings, to key election races and issues up for debate, to the enormous amount of money being spent.
Midterm elections come at a bad time for Trump
One of the reasons opposition Democrats have a chance of regaining control of Congress is the president's low approval rating, a good indicator of how his party might perform in the elections.
Trump began his second term with an approval rating just above 50%, according to polling site Silver Bulletin, but the rating quickly fell into the 40% range.
At the end of February this year, when Trump decided to launch air strikes against Iran, in conjunction with Israel, approval was around 42%. Shortly after, it dropped to less than 40%. It is currently at around 38%.
Eight years ago, at this same point in his first term, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher: 43%. Joe Biden's, at the same point in his term, was 40%. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterm elections but retained the Senate.
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Trump's low approval ratings help explain why Democrats hope to win both houses of Congress and why they are eyeing states where Republicans have won consistently in recent years.
The dispute for the Chamber
The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, is fragile: Republicans have 218 representatives, exactly the number needed to control the House, in addition to an independent parliamentarian who votes with them.
Chamber members serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats will be up for grabs.
But most electoral districts are not considered competitive because the party occupying them has such solid support that there is only one likely winner.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaigns and elections, estimates that only 18 districts are closely contested and could be won by either party.
Of the 18 districts considered undecided, 14 are currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats. Mas, mesmo que os democratas não conquistem nenhum deles, ainda vencerão a disputa pela Câmara se levarem as 36 cadeiras classificadas como provavelmente democratas ou com vantagem para os democratas.
Historically, midterm elections see many party changes in the House, usually as a form of protest against the White House. The average number of seats lost by the president's party is 27, according to data dating back to 1934. Of the 23 elections held since then, the president's party only increased its representation in three.
The race for the Senate
Republicans have a little more solid control of the Senate. They occupy 53 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats have 45 and have two independents who also vote with them.
Senators serve six-year terms, so about a third of the seats are up for election every two years.
Thirty-five seats will be up for grabs this Tuesday, but an analysis by the Cook Political Report indicates that only seven of them are up for grabs and could be won by either party.
Of these swing districts, six are currently held by Republicans and one by a Democrat.
To reach 51 seats and take control of the Senate, Democrats would need to win four of these seats, in addition to the four classified as probably Democratic or with an advantage for Democrats.
But winning a majority will not be an easy task for Democrats.
They need to hold on to their seat in Michigan, where some polls indicate the race is closer than Democrats would like, between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing candidate from outside mainstream politics, and his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.
They would also need to win seats in states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
But polls indicate they have a chance, even in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a state Senate seat since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current Texas attorney general and a close Trump ally.
What are the main issues for voters?
Trump promised to "end inflation and make life more affordable in America" during his 2024 election campaign, but the cost of living is proving to be voters' top concern.
The president proudly declared that gasoline was "now below $2.30 [R$12.50] per gallon in most states" in his State of the Union address on February 24. But the war with Iran began four days later, disrupting energy supplies to the Middle East and causing the price of gasoline to reach US$4 (R$21.75) in the USA.
The war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences reverberated around the world and ultimately took a toll on American consumers. A survey conducted in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation.
Other issues voters say are important include health care and immigration.
Trump has recently touted his immigration policies as a major success, citing significantly lower border crossing numbers than in recent years.
Many Democratic candidates are focusing their campaign on the high costs of U.S. health insurance and the impact of Trump's legislation on health care access.
Can Trump defy the logic of politics?
Most signs point to Democrats doing well in the midterm elections, but if Republicans win more seats than expected, it wouldn't be the first time that Trump and his party have performed better than the polls indicate.
One of the Republicans' few advantages is their enormous financial advantage.
As of mid-October, the Republican National Committee and allied groups had about US$320 million (R$1.74 billion) available in cash, while Democrats had just under US$230 million (R$1.25 billion).
In addition, the Republicans also had more than US$160 million (R$870 million) in resources from Trump's group MAGA Inc., the main fundraising and spending arm of the political movement Make America Great Again ("Make America Great Again").
Republicans are using this financial advantage to buy ads.
More than $1 billion worth of political ads were shown to American voters in September, according to research firm AdImpact. Republicans spent $200 million more than Democrats and outspent them in nearly every Senate race classified as close.
Trump hopes this last-minute publicity offensive will help persuade Republicans to go to the polls in November, increasing turnout and limiting the damage to him and his party.
Whatever the outcome, attention will soon turn to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump's unpopularity dominated the midterm elections, but as he is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, the focus will shift to what Democrats stand for, not just what they oppose.
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