Americans go to the polls this Tuesday to decide the continuation of Donald Trump's presidency.
Thousands of elections take place across the United States, at different levels of power. But the main event for voters will be the election of members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress.
These two chambers are currently controlled by the Republicans, the president's party. The success or failure of the final two years of Trump's term could hinge on the outcome of this election.
Here's our visual guide to understanding where the battle for power will play out: from popularity ratings, to key votes and issues, to the colossal sums of money spent.
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Midterm elections come at worst for Trump
One reason opposition Democrats have a chance to regain control of Congress is the president's low approval ratings, which is a good indicator of his party's potential performance.
He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50 percent, according to the polling website Silver Bulletin, but that quickly fell to around 40 percent.
It was hovering around 42% when Trump decided to launch airstrikes with Israel against Iran at the end of last February, but it fell below 40% shortly after. It is currently around 37%.
Eight years ago, at this point in his first term, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher, at 43 percent. Joe Biden's was 40%. In both cases, the outgoing president lost control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, but retained control of the Senate.
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But Trump's low popularity partly explains why Democrats hope to win both houses of Congress and why they are focusing their efforts on states that Republicans have won consistently in recent years.
The battle for the House
The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house, is extremely weak: they have 218 representatives, the exact number needed to have control, plus one independent who votes with them.
House members serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats are up for renewal in November.
But most districts are not considered competitive because the party that holds them has such strong support that there is only one likely winner.
The Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaigns and elections, suggests that only 18 districts are "undecided districts" that could be won by either party.
Of these 18 undecided districts, 14 are currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats. But even if Democrats win none, they would gain a majority in the House of Representatives if they win all 36 seats considered likely Democratic or Democratic-leaning.
Historically, midterm elections are marked by a significant turnover of seats in the House of Representatives, generally in protest against the White House. On average, the president's party loses 27 seats, according to data going back to 1934. Of those 23 elections, the president's party advanced in only three of them.
The battle for the Senate
The Republicans have a slight lead in the Senate. They hold 53 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats have 45, plus two independents who vote with them.
Members of the Senate serve six-year terms, so about a third of them are renewed every two years.
Thirty-five seats are up for election in November, but an analysis by the Cook Political Report suggests that only seven of them are undecided and could swing either way.
Of these undecided seats, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. The latter would have to win four of these seats, as well as the four considered potentially acquired by the Democrats, to reach the majority of 51 seats and take control of the Senate.
But winning the majority is no easy feat for Democrats.
They must retain their seat in Michigan, where polls indicate the race is tighter than Democrats would like between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican rival Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.
And they are also expected to gain seats in states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
But polls suggest they have a chance, even in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a state Senate seat since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the state's current attorney general and close Trump ally.
What are the key issues for voters?
During his 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to "end inflation and make America affordable again," but the cost-of-living crisis is emerging as the top issue for voters.
The president proudly declared during his State of the Union address on February 24 that the price of gasoline was "now below $2.30 [£1.74] per gallon in most states." But war with Iran broke out four days later, disrupting energy supplies to the Middle East and sending the price of gasoline to $4 (£3.03) in the United States.
The war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences were felt around the world and eventually took a heavy toll on the purchasing power of American consumers. A poll in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation.
Other issues voters consider important include health care and immigration.
Trump recently touted his immigration policy as a great success, citing significantly lower border crossing numbers than in recent years.
Many Democratic candidates are emphasizing the high cost of health insurance in the United States and the impact of Trump's legislation on access to the health care system.
Can Trump defy the laws of politics?
All indications are that the Democrats will win the midterm elections, but it would not be the first time that Trump and his party have performed better than expected if they win more seats than expected.
One of the few things they have going for them is their huge financial advantage.
As of mid-October, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had about $320 million (£240 million) in cash, while Democrats had just under $230 million (£170 million).
On top of that, Republicans also had more than $160 million (£120 million) held by Trump's MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the Make America Great Again political movement.
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Republicans use this financial advantage to buy advertising.
According to research firm AdImpact, more than $1 billion in political ads were delivered to American voters in September. Republicans spent $200 million more than Democrats and outspent them in almost all of the Senate races considered undecided.
Trump hopes this last-minute communications offensive can convince Republicans to vote in November, which will increase turnout and limit the damage done to him and his party.
Whatever the outcome, attention will quickly turn to the upcoming 2028 presidential election. Trump's unpopularity dominated the midterm elections, but because he is constitutionally ineligible for a third term, the focus will shift to what Democrats stand for, not just what they oppose.
We used AI to help translate this article, originally written in English. A BBC journalist checked the translation before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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