The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Tuesday their intention to leave OPEC and OPEC+ from May, in a context of tensions with other Gulf countries reinforced by the war in the Middle East. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of oil analysis for the company Kpler, deciphers the consequences of this decision.

Published on: 04/28/2026 - 9:07 p.m.

A surprise announcement and consequences still unknown. The United Arab Emirates announced in a press release on Tuesday April 28 that they were leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ organization (which notably includes Russia) as of May 1, 50 years after joining the oil cartel.

Abu Dhabi had already threatened several times to leave the body, created in 1960 to regulate oil prices, against a backdrop of tensions with other member countries over production quotas. “The world needs more energy and more resources, and the United Arab Emirates wanted to free itself from any constraints,” said Emirati Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei in an interview with the American channel CNBC.

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, one of the five founding members of OPEC, and growing tensions with rival Saudi Arabia probably sealed his decision. If several countries have already left OPEC (Indonesia, Angola or Gabon), this time it is a major departure since the United Arab Emirates is the third oil producing country in the organization (behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq) with 3.6 million barrels produced each day, according to the International Energy Agency. So how can we explain this decision? And what future for OPEC? France 24 interviewed Homayoun Falakshahi, head of oil analysis at Kpler.

France 24: How do you explain the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC?

Homayoun Falakshahi: It’s half a surprise. To some extent this release was predictable, but the timing was not. Since 2020, we have heard rumors of an exit from the Emirates. What has changed the situation is the fact that since 2015, it is the country which has increased its production capacities the most. They signed many contracts with Western companies and their production capacities increased from 3 to 5 million barrels per day. On the other hand, OPEC production quotas did not increase as quickly, making the UAE feel shortchanged.

Did the rivalry with Saudi Arabia and the war in Iran precipitate this decision?

The Saudis and Emiratis have a growing rivalry. They are rivals in Yemen (Abu Dhabi supports the separatists in southern Yemen while Riyadh supports the government, Editor's note), in Libya, in Sudan. The Emirates signed the Abraham Accords while Saudi Arabia did not. Since the start of the war in Iran, they have been the country most affected by Iranian missiles and drones, which explains their much clearer position towards Iran, compared to other countries in the region. For the Emirates, leaving OPEC is perhaps a way of confirming this break with the other Gulf countries. It is also a decision that raises the question of the future of the organization.

What impact could the withdrawal of the Emirates have on oil prices?

In the immediate future, there should be no major consequences. This might encourage some investors to sell a few positions, but it will be quite limited. Once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the Emirates will produce more than it could have produced within OPEC. So we can predict, in the long term, a drop in barrel prices, even if the strait will not be reopened overnight. On the other hand, OPEC members will have to meet and decide whether or not they maintain production quotas. Saudi Arabia could be tempted to produce more to maintain its market share and limit the gains of its Emirati rival.

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