Moscow proposed a ceasefire for Victory Day and kyiv went ahead with a unilateral measure, in a context of attrition: according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia lost 116 km² in April, its first net drop in territory since 2024.
First modification: 05/04/2026 - 22:56 Last modification: 05/05/2026 - 00:26
Russia and Ukraine announced this Monday that they will promote a ceasefire, although on different days and with opposite motivations.
On the Moscow side, the Ministry of Defense reported that the truce will take place on May 8 and 9, in commemoration of the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
The proposal was promoted by Russian President Vladimir Putin after a conversation last week with his American counterpart, Donald Trump.
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The Kremlin threatened to launch a "massive missile attack" on central kyiv in case Ukraine tries to implement "criminal plans" to disrupt Victory Day celebrations.
The statement indicates that Moscow hopes that kyiv will follow its example and respect the cessation of hostilities on Friday and Saturday, the day on which the traditional military parade will take place in Red Square.
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kyiv's response: an anticipated "regime of silence"
For his part, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, declared this Monday that his country will observe its own ceasefire, but that it will begin much earlier: at midnight on Tuesday, May 5.
Zelensky, through his Telegram channel, noted that Russia has not responded to kyiv's previous calls for a coordinated cessation of hostilities.
The president explained that Ukraine will continue with the measure unilaterally because it considers that “human life is incomparably more valuable than the 'celebration' of any anniversary,” in clear reference to Russian festivities.
“In this sense, we announce a regime of silence starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5 to 6,” said the head of state.
Although Zelensky did not specify a duration for this ceasefire, he left a clear warning: Ukraine “will act symmetrically from the indicated moment,” which implies that any breach of the truce by Russia will be responded to in the same way.
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Loss of ground and stagnation: the reality of the Russian front versus Moscow's rhetoric
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) mentioned that Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss in April, the first since Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region in 2024.
According to the newspaper 'kyiv Post', Moscow lost control of 116 square kilometers during that month, a panorama that indicates a continuous slowdown on the entire battle front.
“The ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026, not counting areas where Russian troops could have infiltrated,” the Institute said in a statement.
According to the American think tank, the pace of Russian advance across the battlefield has been steadily declining since November 2025, “as continued Ukrainian ground counterattacks, medium-range Ukrainian attacks, the February 2026 blockade of Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin's throttling of Telegram have exacerbated existing problems within the Russian military.”
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The seasonal factor and the "war of perception"
However, the ISW warns that this slowdown should not be read linearly. Analysts note that the relative decline in the pace of Russian advances could be related, in part, to annual seasonal patterns, which traditionally make large-scale operations difficult this time of year.
Furthermore, the report highlights that comparing the performance of 2026 with that of 2025 is complex due to the change in the nature of the conflict.
Over the past year, Russia has dramatically increased its use of infiltration tactics, a method that seeks to penetrate lines without consolidating positions.
According to the Institute, the Kremlin uses these infiltration tactics, in part, to exaggerate its actual control on the ground to the international community and its own domestic audience.
With AFP, EFE and Reuters
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