Paris (France) (AFP) – Heat waves and drought in France this year will cost the French economy 0.1 points of growth in 2026, due to the drop in agricultural production, according to Bercy calculations, an impact which should affect the government's growth forecast of 0.7% for the year.

Published on: 02/09/2026 - 16:49

During a hearing on Wednesday by the parliamentary mission on the cost of the heatwave, chaired by MP Eric Coquerel (LFI), representatives of the General Directorate of the Treasury gave their estimate of the impact of summer climatic events on activity.

According to them, agricultural value added, which measures the wealth created by production, should fall by 8% this year. This is about half the effect of the 2003 heatwave, when it fell by around 15%.

The National Institute of Statistics (Insee), interviewed at the same time by the parliamentary mission, also put the impact of this summer's heat waves at 0.1 points of gross domestic product (GDP), below the cost of the 2003 heatwave, which was 0.3 points of growth.

INSEE clarified, however, that the impact of heatwaves was "already integrated into the data and the very disappointing growth we had in the first half of the year". It revised downwards its GDP figures for the first and second quarters on Friday, to -0.2% and 0.0% respectively.

“There is no really additional impact to be expected at the end of the year,” underlined Dorian Roucher, head of the INSEE economics department, recalling that the institute “counts agricultural production at the time it grows and not at the time we harvest.”

Affected corn, fodder and vegetables

In detail, the heat waves and drought of 2026 "have considerably affected certain agricultural production, in particular corn with -35% production forecast in 2026 compared to 2025", specified the Ministry of the Economy. The meadows were also "very affected, with cumulative growth a third lower than normal as of August 10".

These effects add to those of the conflict in the Middle East on agriculture, while the rise in gas prices has increased the cost of nitrogen fertilizers and global fertilizer trade has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Wheat yields, on the other hand, are "very close to normal" because "the wheat was harvested very early", indicated INSEE.

Vegetables were very affected, leading to a “very sharp increase in the price of fresh vegetables”, of around 14%, continued Dorian Roucher. “It is estimated that it is 0.1 point of inflation out of the 2.4% (of inflation in August) which comes directly from these fresh vegetables,” he said.

Public works in difficulty

If the heatwaves also had "many other sectoral and localized effects", excluding agriculture, their effects "at the macroeconomic level should be more limited", estimates the Ministry of the Economy.

INSEE also indicated that sectors such as construction may have suffered from the heat, but that the biggest impact concerned agriculture.

A third of public works companies declared having been constrained in their activity by climatic hazards in July. But this disruption occurred "in a context which was generally degraded", and with possibilities of catching up subsequently, hence a lesser impact, estimated Dorian Roucher.

The Minister of Ecological Transition Monique Barbut indicated in mid-August that the repeated heatwaves of the summer could cost France "in the order of 10 to 15 billion euros in direct and indirect costs", which includes destruction of stocks, heritage and other broader effects, beyond the shortfall for growth.

In addition to the expected effect on growth, this impact of heatwaves and drought will affect public finances. In full preparation of a difficult budget for 2027, which must be presented on September 30, the government has already warned that its public deficit target of 5% of GDP this year would be difficult to achieve.

© 2026 AFP

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